OmniVest User Forums
OmniVest Success
V2 Success
14 replies, 3234 viewings
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OmniVest User Forums
OmniVest Success
V2 Success
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Last Activity 7/22/2015 1:06 PM 14 replies, 3234 viewings |
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Steve2 Elite    Posts: 750 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Annapolis, MD  User Profile |
While we're all looking forward to the OV Pro enhancements, I'd like to say that the old stuff is working quite well. Steve [Edited by Steve2 on 6/22/2014 1:28 PM] | ||
| kmcintyre Elite Posts: 890 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Portland, OR User Profile |
Glad to hear of your success. After 1.25 years of live trading I'm up 5%. I've made better returns in balanced mutual funds over the same period. But I continue to hold out hope for OmniVest. Cheers Keith (Make that 3%...) [Edited by kmcintyre on 6/23/2014 3:23 PM] | ||
| Juan Regular Posts: 74 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Round Rock, Tx User Profile |
Dynamic lists were something I thought OmniTrader had needed for a very long time. I’ve used OmniTrader since 1997 and was so excited when I heard this was being added to OV. So I jumped on it as soon as it came out in mid-March. Since 4/1/2014, my non-retirement portfolio has shot up 18.5%!!! At same time SPY is up 4.8%. It is margined up to 195% and allows shorts up to 50% of the portfolio. For my retirement account which I've been trading since 5/1/2013, this is now up 22.07%. It had been bouncing around btw 14% - 18% return for many months, but recently turned up. Since 1/1/2014, this is up 6.65% and SPY is up 6.09%. So it is exceeding SPY but not by much. Even though it’s not greatly exceeding SPY, I’m very happy that it has very low drawdowns. It’s not been volatile and allows me to sleep at night. On my non-retirement account, one of the key changes I made was to not allow MAX % Equity per symbol to exceed 20%. Before, I had it at 35%. The reason I did that was going back to 2000 and 2007, I was able to achieve billion $ returns. The returns looked astronomical and I couldn’t help myself. But what I found was when you over allocate on one symbol you can get easily burned. I had situations where two or three symbols took up over 100% of my equity and were big losers and would take away from all the hard earned profits over previous months. The portfolio was simply too volatile. So back in March my main objective was to redevelop a new portfolio based on Dynamic Lists on my non-retirement portfolio with a strict cap of 20% MAX % equity per symbol. The average trade size is 9.6%. So I was actually able to achieve higher CAR ratio with lower drawdowns capped at 20%. At 20% I can rest easier. I only used the default dynamic lists that were made available in late March. The way I built the lists took a lot of time probably 30 hours in all of add a strategy, does it improve the results, yes keep it, no remove it…and so forth..etc… Then I went back and removed strategies to see if it improved results. It was a tedious and iterative process. But I’ve not touched it since then. Now, after almost three months, I want to share the great results. SPY has had a max drawdown of -3.9% since 4/1/2014 (from 4/2/2014 thru 4/11/2014). My non-retirement account has experienced a real max drawdown of -4.8%. This is slightly higher than SPY but it came with 18.5% return which is well worth it. So V2 with Dynamic Portfolios has been very successful and I'm very happy with it. But the best has yet to come. Once Portfolio wizard is out, I plan to go back and revisit both my retirement and non-retirement accounts. I really believe the combination of Portfolio/Strategy Wizard, Dynamic Entries/Exits, and Dynamic lists will allow for even greater success at exceeding the major market indexes with less risk. Thanks. | ||
| Mark Holstius Elite Posts: 744 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Sleepy Hollow, IL User Profile |
I completely agree that these new tools Ed & the whole Nirvana staff have been working so hard on will really make a difference. I also know that it's hard to just "wait" while we show some great results during this development stage. There's a lot of work being done as quickly as possible on what's become a really big (and exciting) project. Ed took what Steve & I worked so hard on and made the concept even better. "Seeding" these new tools with good Dynamic Strategies based on Dynamic lists as a pool to select from should make it even better. With that in mind, could you share which of the Dynamic lists you've found most useful your trading? Thanks - it's always good to hear about successful results, Mark | ||
| JimB Member Posts: 36 Joined: 3/7/2014 Location: Rogers, MN User Profile |
Thanks for sharing your results. I began trading on April 23 of this year. My account is up 2.37% through 6/20. I am using 16 strategies, including the ARM margin plus others. The only filter is Ed's EMA7P on the equity curve. My account settings are conservative in terms of percent per position and use of margin. Only one trade per symbol is allowed. Thanks, Jim | ||
| Juan Regular Posts: 74 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Round Rock, Tx User Profile |
BASING * PRS * BULL * ELS100 * INVETF (not dynamic but added anyway) The way I put together the strategies was simply using Strategy Lab and selecting "BASING *" for example, and then used these settings: Action: Test on List against all systems Direction: Both Allocation: 10 Condition: none Timeframe was back-test to 1/1/2007 I then ran strategy lab and created typically 7 or 8 of the top strategies based on high CAR and low Drawdown. This was subjective and based simply on eyeballing the #'s. So that created 35 new strategies (ie 5 x 7) approximately. Then I went back to existing portfolio that was based strictly on RTM strategies and here's where the tedious work began. One by one, for each newly created strategy, I added to the existing portfolio and checked if it increased CAR and reduced draw down. If so, then I added, if not I left it out. After I went through all 35 strategies, I went back to remove the existing strategies to see if by removing them improved the results. It took pretty much all weekend and then some. But in the end I achieved my goal of getting high CAR ratio with lower DD and most important max trade symbol of 20% with average of 10%. I agree it takes much time to get the #'s where you want them. But well worth the time if you can dedicate to it. Thanks. | ||
| tgrafa Regular Posts: 63 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Midland, Texas User Profile |
It appears that things have reversed somewhat in November - this particular account is up about 2% this month. I am also curious as to other's actual performance for the last couple of months - you know, misery loves company :^(  Attached file : OmniVest Performance 10_31_14.jpg (162KB - 370 downloads) | ||
| Juan Regular Posts: 74 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Round Rock, Tx User Profile |
The good news is that it's within historical thresholds of the portfolio and the overall return and then subsequent draw down in OV match my real trading results. I was very pleased that everything lined up real well from what I see on the charts in OV to my live trading. I've actually followed this very consistently just to see if it really worked. My retirement portfolio was ahead of the SPY for most of the year, but is now way behind. While SPY has been shooting up, the portfolio I have is hardly firing any trades. So basically sitting out this extraordinary market uptrend. From mid Sept. to mid Oct., the market was consistently going down and RTM trades just went from bad to worse. Then from mid Oct to now, the market has shot up like a rocket and RTM strategies have mainly been firing shorts. See article of how unusual this is http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-get-suckered-by-stock-market-winning-streak-2014-11-12?dist=afterbell. This combination led to, of course, pretty bad drawdown while the market is actually up for the year. What I've noticed with RTM strategies are: 1) We need better stop loss management. There were several trades that just keep rolling over every day. RTM is waiting for slight up day to close the position. But that doesn't always happen and a stock just continues to go down. Some stocks get oversold and stay oversold for a long time (vice versa for shorts). For some of the less liquid stocks, this can happen quite often and you end up taking a huge loss. I suggest some place to add stop loss code in our strategies. Weather it's as simple as close the position at 10% loss or something more complex using OmniLanguage, there needs to be a way to get out of bad trades and back test the logic. 2) The V-shape we have recently experienced in the market is quite unusual and caused RTM strategies to continue buying all the way down and then start shorting all the way up (or stop trading all together for LONG only accounts). Item #2 has actually confirmed more then ever that we truly need to focus on PW and PB to get around this. I recommend that Nirvana add the ability to switch strategies or portfolios weekly or twice a month in PW and PB. Thus, the process can recognize market changes more quickly. Ed mentioned that this is something he'd like to add. I fully agree...don't know if it will work...but worth trying it out over this past two months. I still feel we have all the tools to figure it out. It's just not going to be as easy as originally expected. The original run up of 46% was a real profit and I'm very positive about that. If we hadn't had the recent V shape in the market, it may have gone to 60% or even 100%...who knows. But the potential to get significant returns is clearly there. | ||
| tgrafa Regular Posts: 63 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Midland, Texas User Profile |
The positive thing (which I can't track 100% because of changing portfolios) is that my real accounts seem to pretty well track the simulation curves - that gives me confidence that longer term I'm likely fine and for that reason I have stuck with the program. I have initiated 9% TP stops to cut my losses. I feel that once a stock gets that underwater it is hard for an RTM trade to recover - I've recently had too many 12%-15% losses beating up my accounts. I know long-term that Nirvana would say I am hurting myself and 'selling at the bottom' but those double digit hits are painful. I also think that OV needs to do a better job of syncing accounts once a stock is stopped out by the TP or manually traded (or a short fails to fill). We need a way to automatically reinvest those funds in a timely manner - maybe TP on server will move us closer to that ability. I also agree that the strong V was a killer for RTM trades - that straight down correction and even quicker recovery was not an RTM market. I guess what puzzles me is the periods before and after the V as to why the general non performance of RTM trades. My post may have come across as a little whiny but that was not my intent - if someone out there has any ideas as to how to explain (even in hindsight) what happened I would really be interested. Conditional filtering and dynamic exits holds some possibilities to turn off non-performing strategies/portfolios and cut losses - I just don't know that I have the ability to decipher that puzzle at this time - I'm sure conditional filtering and dynamic exits will become clearer as time progresses. IMO the near-term hopeful solution will be the PB once it becomes fully operational. Being able to measure the performance curve of say an RTM portfolio verses other non-correlated trading portfolios or even cash should cut some of the potential draw-down. I also am looking forward to some of those elite trader possibilities to throw into the mix and see what they might offer. Sorry to hear you experienced some of what I did but as I said, misery loves company :^( In the meantime, I'll focus on that longer term simulation curve - back out to a 2-3 year chart where the granularity of those painful shorter term moves seem to magically disappear! Thanks for your thoughts. | ||
| Juan Regular Posts: 74 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Round Rock, Tx User Profile |
My retirement account never had lift off this year. It maxed out at 9% but at end of year had only a 3% return. In 2013 it was up 18% which was fantastic. This account was never able to make much progress after Sept, when market volatility began in earnest. I think it was tough year for anyone trading…even for OmniVest. In IBD, the top 20 Mutual Funds averaged only 2.3%, hedge funds in general were unable to beat the market. My hope is that Nirvana adds the ability to upload your own custom built strategies from OmniTrader which you can then bash to all the dynamic and historic lists in OmniVest’s “Strategy Lab”. I added more on this at this post: http://www.omnitrader.com/currentclients/omnivestforum/thread-view.asp?threadid=4034&posts=25 I also still have a lot of exploring to do in Portfolio Wizard, Portfolio Balancer, Dynamic Lists, Historic Lists, OmniPortfolios, etc... I plan to continue strongly into the new year and I’m certainly not giving up. I feel there’s tremendous opportunity here…but it won’t come easy. | ||
| tgrafa Regular Posts: 63 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Midland, Texas User Profile |
Wouldn't it be nice to be able to subscribe to or build your own elite trader portfolio that is driven by OT systems/omni-language to help put on hedges when the market begins to turn. Many of us have some pretty accurate OT systems that can be used to time a hedge. I am reducing the OV buying power of my accounts so that funds are available to manually put on a hedge when my systems/indicators give a signal. Reducing buying power will decrease the returns but if I can avoid some of the draw-downs of these market corrections, IMO annual returns will come out far ahead at the end of the year - Time will tell! I'm proceeding with the manual approach for now using OT to generate my hedge signals and then placing the trades as OV unmanaged positions. It gets away from the total automated trading of OV that I prefer but I'll pay that price until N get around to giving us a solution. If I get a chance the next day or so I'll be more than happy to share my V2 success. | ||
| tgrafa Regular Posts: 63 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Midland, Texas User Profile |
Acct #1 Opened 3/14 Year-End actual return + 8.4% Acct #2 Opened 3/14 Year-End actual return +17.9% Acct #3 Opened 4/14 Year-End actual return + 4.0% Acct #4 Opened 6/30 Year-End actual return - 0.4% All accounts were performing very well until the Sept/Oct draw-down. Acct #3 was down -2.5% at the end of Oct so it has bounced back +6.5% the last 2 months. Acct #4 didn't have as much of a profit buffer being opened 6/30 - it was down -6.57% at the end of Oct so it has recovered +6.16% the last 2 months. If...if...if...we had not had the Sept/Oct draw down then all of the accounts would have performed admirably for the year - we just need to have a way to hedge and protect ourselves during these corrections. Acct #2 caught an unusually large gain on a trade that wasn't supposed to happen - it pleasantly served me a reminder that you shouldn't go a week without looking at an account. This time it worked to my advantage... | ||
| Steve2 Elite Posts: 750 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Annapolis, MD User Profile |
Thanks Nirvana! Hopefully, the coming year will be even better. Steve | ||
| Mark Holstius Elite Posts: 744 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Sleepy Hollow, IL User Profile |
Good to hear! Mark | ||
| Juan Regular Posts: 74 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Round Rock, Tx User Profile |
Using combination of both Historical Dynamic lists and the Pro tools that came with V2, I've had the following returns as of 7/21/2015: Leveraged Account: 16.2% vs SPY 3.02% IRA Account: 6.26% vs SPY 3.02% OT is doing what I had hoped which as to beat the S&P500. Originally I was hoping to get returns in the 50% to 100% range like what you see in the historical equity curves. But I've found that very difficult to do. Last year I did have a 45% return but then got to enjoy a 20% correction. So I changed the settings to be more conservative. I think you can probably get the huge returns but you'll incur more risk. I've not made any changes since last January and have basically left it on autopilot since I have very limited time. I'm looking forward to OmniFunds and especially it's ability to stay 100% invested. That is a great direction Nirvana is taking. Thanks Nirvana, Juan |
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