OmniTrader Professional Forum
OmniTrader Pro General Discussion
Tradenosis users - thoughts?
20 replies, 1475 viewings
|
OmniTrader Professional Forum
OmniTrader Pro General Discussion
Tradenosis users - thoughts?
|
Last Activity 2/23/2025 4:01 AM 20 replies, 1475 viewings |
|
|
|
| Printer friendly version |
Buffalo Elite   Posts: 603 Joined: 7/11/2007 Location: Braintree, MA  User Profile |
My thoughts - been trading it live since it came out, obv using v3 now. Frankly Tradenosis has been a big let down. Basically flat since release while BT is great. Needs more tweaking. Maybe have it look at entire market too for signal support or exits? Where is promised ARM version of Tradenosis with genes supported by the AI research?? This is needed as it is NOT performing. MAYBE even use a tradnosis-type AI training on exiting timing as well? What do ya'all think? As of today I would NOT recommend anyone buy or use it. | |||
| Diamondjag Legend Posts: 404 Joined: 3/12/2006 Location: Brighton, Colorado User Profile |
[Edited by Diamondjag on 11/3/2023 1:29 PM] | |||
| mgerber Regular  Posts: 57 Joined: 3/30/2006 Location: Issaquah, WA User Profile |
After the early hype and fanfare I have been waiting for Proof of Life . . . but it never happened; Dead as a door nail. Not that it is alone in that regard. I wished that the collective had a long version, for IRA accounts. That could have been interesting. ie turning Tradenosis on or off, long, depending on our personal trend-trading signals. But like a lot of things that never happened . . . | |||
| james Member Posts: 32 Joined: 5/9/2006 Location: victoria bc User Profile |
Like the other posts I am seeing results that are not those expected. Since the TRADEnosis concept started with Ed and Steve I expected the follow up to come from that source. I have written to Ed a few times to ask for current activity, etc. but received no reply. I really don't know if the whole concept is under water or under review. But I am hopeful and would love to see some ideas as to areas to explore. Jim | |||
| Buffalo Elite Posts: 603 Joined: 7/11/2007 Location: Braintree, MA User Profile |
I have also noticed that the planned TN roll out to the masses via Collective2 (for subscription) has not been announced or pushed so Nirvana also knows TN is failing. So Nirvana what is the fix? Should we abandon it? It's your product and to just put it out then forget about it when even v3 is failing is unsat. | |||
| mgerber Regular Posts: 57 Joined: 3/30/2006 Location: Issaquah, WA User Profile |
--All three were subscribed to TN on the same date, Feb 28, 2023 --All three show the beginning date for the Collective TN chart is Feb 24, 2023. --I went back in the TN trade list, and the very first TN trade was Short 68 CL opened on 2-27-23. --Ed's Inner Circle Update of 2-27-23 announced that this was the first day of TN deployment in C2 for Inner Circle members. Thus the above activity. As far as I know, TN for non-IC members has never been mentioned at all, ever. I think that C2 usage has always been planned/meant for IC members only . . . [Edited by mgerber on 11/6/2023 2:29 PM] | |||
| Barry Cohen Idol  Posts: 2305 Joined: 1/1/1900 User Profile |
| |||
| Ed Downs Member Posts: 32 Joined: 1/1/1900 Location: Austin, Texas User Profile |
I agree 100%. TRADEnosis should be discussed, and all TN users should have as much information as possible about our work to bring Cloud A.I. to our Nirvana Customers, because we aren't "done" yet. Let me share what I know... TRADEnosis & Nirvana First, Steve Mayo is an excellent scientist. I have been meeting with Steve and others in our "mastermind" group almost every Tuesday since 2014. You've seen Steve's work on the web site he presented at BASH (I believe) 2015 called "OmniVesting", where he did extensive work on the trade data coming out of OmniVest. I didn't ask him to do that - he just thought it would add value for everyone using OmniVest. And he built all of it himself. All of you watched the presentation and know the story, but Steve truly did a rigorous dive into the A.I. Systems that were available over the past few years to build this platform. When he brought it to me, I was impressed at the simulated trade statistics he was generating. The idea of bringing this to our customers was a good one, so we collaborated, and along with the intense efforts of our staff, to pulled the TN Signals into OT. Deploying the Beta As Steve explained in his presentation, the numbers he reported were the theoretical trade performance assuming every trade could be taken. Steve didn't have an OmniTrader-like system running in the Cloud, so he couldn't measure actual trade simulations. But as soon as the Signals could be delivered to OmniTrader, we could measure the historical signals using PortSim. And, they looked great. So we decided to share the results and provide licenses to TN at an introductory price. Once it was fully implemented in OT, we started trading the Signals by way of Collective 2. When performance was less than expected, we began tweaking the OmniTrader Signal process. For a while, our portfolio simulations seemed to be providing better results and a reasonable "Alpha". But, now that we have 8-9 months of actual, live market results, we understand that we aren't there yet. What affected TN's performance this year? A change in the market? High interest rates and persistent inflation - a scenario we haven't seen since the 80's? To answer this question, Steve has been running the QScore Signals through another A.I. process to understand how the scoring could have been affected. The TN Beta started as a live in-market project based on the work that Steve did over the past few years. But I feel that I must do what I can to ensure ultimate success. So, in addition to Steve's investigations the last few months, I have been doing my own research. Moving Forward Tonight, I am in Michigan because a family member suffered a massive stroke last week. I thank God that they appear to be gradually recovering. But I am also thankful for every one of you, who took the leap of faith and signed up for TRADEnosis. And I can tell you, we definitely aren't done. Getting a Cloud A.I. Solution is important, not only for those of us who want to trade with it, but for Nirvana Systems. Having worked with our own home-grown A.I. since 1996, I can tell you that we DO have an edge; we just need to exploit it. If my family situation had not happened, an update would have been sent out by now. I don't have the details ready to publish tonight, but I think you deserve some info on what's going on, and am happy to informally explain what Steve and I are doing. An Exciting New World The A.I. Model Steve used was a "Classification" model, just one of many models that are available. There are also Long-Short Term Memory NNs (LSTMs), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Random Forests, and about 10 others, including Transformers - the A.I. model that ChatGPT is based on. Steve has been investigating these models, as well as the ML (Machine Learning) platforms that are available. While he does that, I have been running my own experiments using the "Codeless" A.I. platforms that sprung up this year. These platforms enable those who want to use A.I. to upload training data, have it trained, and then pull down answers. No coding required. I recently uploaded a test data set to one of them and was very excited about what I got back. It didn't have stock market data, but it was a difficult problem to solve using any other form of numerical analysis. Before I left for Michigan, I was preparing a data set with actual measurements from OmniTrader. As soon as I have the results, however they turn out, I will publish my update along with whatever Steve has discovered, and what we think comes next. I want to add that I do think we are still ahead of the pack. It's no secret that others out there are trying to use these models to solve the market. But they don't have what we have - nearly 30 years of experience with pattern matching and the indicators that make that happen. Update Coming.. Barry told me today that I needed to look at this thread and respond. I appreciated that, because I am not in the Forums every day. But I also appreciate all of you and the value you have added for everyone over the years - in the Forums and elsewhere. I know one of you used our Genetic Algorithm to get great returns last year. You also published your results. However, you added that you put in a lot of work in to make that happen, including hundreds of runs and using many Strategies in parallel. There had to be an easier way, and I firmly believe that Cloud A.I. is the way. I didn't want to send out an update with a lot of speculation. What Steve and I are working hard to get to is a viable path to augmenting TRADEnosis, perhaps with a new model or even a new approach - whatever it takes. But I totally agree that we need to share with you how we are advancing the ball. I will endeavor to check this thread periodically and respond. I ask that you give us this week to conclude this early look at the paths we are evaluating. At a MINIMUM, I will share the results I got last week in my experiment, and the path forward. Deploying a strong A.I. capability is crucial for Nirvana Systems. There's a saying by radio host Kim Komando, "Innovate or Evaporate." So true. Nirvana needs to produce a solid success in the Cloud A.I. arena. It goes without saying, but whatever we get to from here, your license will provide you with access to it. Thanks for hanging in there with us. Bottom Line: We will continue working the problem until we solve it, and I will make sure we keep you informed as we go down the path. Sincerely,  Ed Downs | |||
| james Member Posts: 32 Joined: 5/9/2006 Location: victoria bc User Profile |
Sorry to hear about family problems. Good luck with that. Thanks for the TRADEnosis update and am looking forward to your further communication. If I can be of any help let me know James | |||
| Buffalo Elite Posts: 603 Joined: 7/11/2007 Location: Braintree, MA User Profile |
First off take care of your family! DO NOT get taken over by this stuff until they are in a better situation! Thank you for the update. I look forward to seeing what you guys have in store. Family first Bill | |||
| Ed Downs Member Posts: 32 Joined: 1/1/1900 Location: Austin, Texas User Profile |
Thank you so much for that. It's my mother in law and fortunately, she has improved since last week. My wife is going back to MI without me later this week to stay for a while and help her get to rehab. But that's OK - she knows I have a lot going on with Nirvana, and she has her brothers there to help her. But I very much appreciate the kind words of support. Last night I sent an email out about TRADEnosis 2. We have an aggressive agenda; I'm providing the Features and Steve is testing the models. Don't tell anyone, but one of them showed a 92% accuracy score today. Curve fit? No worries! An important and critical part of this work is to absolutely verify that Out of Sample Data generates similar predictions to Training Data. And we are doing that. Bill, I know you will absolutely love working with this, so I am going as fast as I can to get it to you, running in OmniTrader. Others in this thread as well. If you look at the QQQ chart I included in my presentation, you will notice that the Signals follow trend extremely well. There are almost no counter-trend Signals. And that was on a super simple set of Features measured on a single index. We have to validate all this and it's early (for this effort), but from what I've seen so far, I think this is the Real Deal. We want to deploy a first Beta as soon as humanly possible - not next year, but in this quarter. I can't tell because there are so many moving parts. But I will keep you and all TRADEnosis subscribers informed as we work through it. | |||
| John W Regular Posts: 96 Joined: 6/18/2011 Location: Sydney, NSW, Australia User Profile |
I had previously corresponded with you, Steve, and other key people at Nirvana to relook the original release. Clearly you have done that, and your enthusiasm for Tradenosis 2 is palpable. GREAT NEWS! You are also operating at the bleeding edge of knowledge and understanding, I’m very happy to help test the veracity of this second release. I want you, Steve, and Nirvana to succeed so that we can all be successful with you! | |||
| mgerber Regular Posts: 57 Joined: 3/30/2006 Location: Issaquah, WA User Profile |
I read/listened to all three links in your update. Hope to see an early adoption in C2 so that I can more easily follow actual progress. You know that you are onto something when you can get me excited:) BTW, I did prove earlier this year that IB would automatically filter out SHORT trades from IRA accounts. But it is a bit messy with a slew of error messages. How about a LONG only version for us?? Would be much cleaner and easier to track progress . . . Anyway, would very much like to jump in at the first "Proof-of-Life". Thanks again, Mark G. | |||
| Buffalo Elite Posts: 603 Joined: 7/11/2007 Location: Braintree, MA User Profile |
Great news on BOTH fronts. yes, I can't wait to tinker with what you and Steve have come up with. Thank you for the update and work | |||
| james Member Posts: 32 Joined: 5/9/2006 Location: victoria bc User Profile |
Looks exciting and you project your commitment to make it work. I am not a guru like some of the others so forgive me for a rather basic questions to further my understanding. TRADEnosis 2 and 3 and sectors are no more? There were lessons learnt but there is no fortune to be found in continuing to work them? Steve's Cloud based model will continue to created the opportunity signals after modification to his system? OT will take the task on once the opportunities have been identified? There will be default trading profiles and also the ability to create ones own modifications if desired? Wishing us all success. James | |||
| dnhoward Member Posts: 9 Joined: 3/24/2018 Location: Grapevine, TX User Profile |
Is there anything to have hope for? Darrell [Edited by dnhoward on 2/19/2024 1:07 PM] | |||
| Diamondjag Legend Posts: 404 Joined: 3/12/2006 Location: Brighton, Colorado User Profile |
| |||
| james Member Posts: 32 Joined: 5/9/2006 Location: victoria bc User Profile |
I hate rumors - By far prefer facts. So it would be great to hear from the powers behind this project James | |||
| Barry Cohen Idol Posts: 2305 Joined: 1/1/1900 User Profile |
Absolutely not, I'll see if Ed has an update about it. | |||
| Ed Downs Member Posts: 32 Joined: 1/1/1900 Location: Austin, Texas User Profile |
This morning, Barry asked if I could reply in this thread, and I'm glad he did. He's right. TRADEnosis is absolutely NOT shelved! But I know it's been a while since you've heard any news. I have been working on an official update that I wanted to get out last week. We just moved from our prior offices, but I've settled into the new space and can be productive again. so, let me take this opportunity to tell all TRADEnosis users who are monitoring this thread where we are, and what to expect next... Steve Mayo and I have been iterating on this important A.I. project since we encountered the provider issues that stopped TRADEnosis from updating. Essentially, the econometric data and some other hard to find information he was using were discontinued. So we are pivoting to what we have in OmniTrader, including specialized indicators and fundamentals. In my prior update, I showed some runs we did that looked really good, but testing on out-of-sample data told us we had to keep looking. He ran maybe 20 models on inputs ("features") that I have collected (and I'll share some of those results in my update). After many days of this, Steve came to the conculsion that the features I had given him are not predictive enough (he showed me the stats from the models that showed this). So what I am doing is re-engaging a project I started a while back to create what I call "Super Inputs", which are features that are based on dynamic chart movement. The Classification AI Models Steve uses want to see continuous, "analog" values, not booleans, so generating features like that takes a different approach. The good news is I have made progress, which I will share in my update. Our goal is to get TRADEnosis 2 on-line as quickly as possible, and we have a way for all TRADEnosis users to get involved with us as we build and test it. I think I can get my update out tomorrow. If not, by Monday. I really appreciate everyone's patience while we work through this. It's a very important project. | |||
| jawjahtek Member Posts: 37 Joined: 5/30/2006 Location: Georgia, USA User Profile |
Many indices in OmniData are inaccurate. For example, $VIX and $VIX.N have data saying that the VIX index has been below 7 since October. There are weeks and months in OmniData where $VIX and $VIX.N are below 7. |
|
|
|
|
Administrator
Forum Moderator |
Registered User
Unregistered User |
 E-Mail this thread to a friend |
Toggle e-mail notification |
